Movie Hot Take Predicts the Oscar Nominees

We’re a few hours away from the announcement of this year’s Oscar nominees. Now would be as good of a time as any to weigh in on who I think will be nominated for this year’s awards. And, for fun, who I’d nominate if my vote was the only one that counted:

Best Picture

My Nominations

• Room
• The Hateful Eight
• The Revenant
• The Martian
• The Big Short
• Ex Machina
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• Spotlight
• Sicario
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• The Revenant
• Spotlight
• The Big Short
• The Martian
• Mad Max: Fury Road

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

• Room
• Carol

And the Final Cuts:

• Bridge of Spies
• Straight Outta Compton
• Brooklyn

If the Academy nominates 10 (which hasn’t happened the last 4 years), these are the 10 that have the best shot at getting the honor. The Oscars have a way of being swayed more than any other with slick marketing campaigns which is why Mad Max: Fury Road is on the “lock” list and why Straight Outta Compton sneaks in under the wire and why a movie like Room (for my money, the best movie of 2015) could get pushed out as it may have peaked too early and never really got a late season push.

Best Director

My Nominations

• George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
• Adam McKay (The Big Short)
• Alejandro González Inarritu (The Revenant)
• Ridley Scott (The Martian)
• Denis Villeneuve (Sicario)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• Alejandro González Inarritu (The Revenant)
• Adam McKay (The Big Short)
• Ridley Scott (The Martian)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

• George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

And the Final Cut:

• Thomas McCarthy (Spotlight)

There are a handful of names missing with cache (Steven Spielberg, Quentin Tarantino) and a couple with some juice (F. Gary Gray, Lenny Abrahamson) but those five look like strong contenders.

Best Actor

My Nominations

• Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
• Matt Damon (The Martian)
• Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
• Michael B. Jordan (Creed)
• Jake Gyllenhaal (Southpaw)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
• Matt Damon (The Martian)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

• Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
• Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

And the Final Cut:

• Ian McKellen (Mr. Holmes)

It’s a tough call for the last spot as McKellen, Will Smith and Tom Hanks all had strong enough performances to find their way into the mix. For some reason, McKellen feels like the Oscar thing to do… but then there’s always Bryan Cranston, too.

Best Actress

My Nominations

• Brie Larson (Room)
• Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)
• Amy Schumer (Trainwreck)
• Daisy Ridley (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
• Emily Blunt (Sicario)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• Brie Larson (Room)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

• Cate Blanchett (Carol)
• Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
• Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

And the Final Cut:

• Helen Mirren (Woman in Gold)

There’s a few others that could find their way on the list (Jennifer Lawrence is the first to come to mind) and maybe Rooney Mara cancels out Blanchett and a Charlotte Rampling finds her way in. This one is pretty open.

Best Supporting Actor

My Nominations

• Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
• Jacob Tremblay (Room)
• Christian Bale (The Big Short)
• Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
• Benicio Del Toro (Sicario)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

• Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
• Jacob Tremblay (Room)

And the Final Cuts:

• Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
• Michael Shannon (99 Homes)

The toughest field to narrow. Having not seen Beasts of No Nation, I might be completely misreading things by leaving off Idris Elba but then again, Oscars have a way of whitening up the place. I also could have the wrong actor from the Spotlight ensemble (Mark Ruffalo?) or maybe the wrong ensemble all together (Bale, Steve Carell or Ryan Gosling from The Big Short) or maybe even a different actor from a different ensemble (Wouldn’t O’Shea Jackson Jr. be an interesting choice for his portrayal of his father in Straight Outta Compton?). Let’s not forget the strong performances in The Hateful Eight, too. Good luck with this category.

Best Supporting Actress

My Nominations

• Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
• Julie Walters (Brooklyn)
• Rooney Mara (Carol)
• Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
• Joan Allen (Room)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
• Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

• Julie Walters (Brooklyn)
• Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)

And the Final Cut:

• Helen Mirren (Trumbo)

Vikander should be a runaway winner here, actually but heck, maybe she should be in that middle group. This is a tough category as there weren’t a ton of strong performances. Jane Fonda (Youth) could edge out Mirren for that last spot.

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Nominations

• Emma Donoghue (Room)
• Adam McKay, Charles Randolph (The Big Short)
• Drew Goddard (The Martian)
• Nick Hornby (Brooklyn)
• Donald Marguiles (The End of the Tour)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• Aaron Sorkin (Steve Jobs)
• Adam McKay, Charles Randolph (The Big Short)
• Drew Goddard (The Martian)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

• Phyllis Nagy (Carol)

And the Final Cut:

• Alejandro González Inarritu, Mark L. Smith (The Revenant)

I’m hoping I’m wrong and Emma Donoghue’s screenplay for Room makes the cut but I feel like it might miss out.

Best Original Screenplay

My Nominations:

• Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight)
• Alex Garland (Ex Machina)
• Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (Spotlight)
• Rick Famuiya (Dope)
• Matt Charman, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen (Bridge of Spies)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

• Alex Garland (Ex Machina)
• Thomas, McCarthy, Josh Singer (Spotlight)

And the Final Cuts:

• Matthew Charman, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen (Bridge of Spies)
• Annie Mumolo, David O. Russell (Joy)

Maybe Inside Out will sneak in?

Best Cinematography

My Nominations:

• Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant)
• John Seale (Mad Max: Fury Road)
• Roger Deakins (Sicario)
• Dariusz Wolski (The Martian)
• Dariusz Wolski (The Walk)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant)
• John Seale (Mad Max: Fury Road)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

• Roger Deakins (Sicario)
• Robert Richardson (The Hateful Eight)

And the Final Cut:

• Edward Lachman (Carol)

Maybe Carol doesn’t make the cut and another film sneaks in as Carol, The Danish Girl, Brooklyn and Suffragette all have a similar look. This could open the door for a number of films like Sicario or The Martian.

Best Original Score

My Nominations:

• Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight)
• John Williams (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
• Howard Shore (Spotlight)
• Junkie XL (Mad Max: Fury Road)
• Johann Johannson (Sicario)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But..B.:

• John Williams (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
• Carter Burwell (Carol)
• Michael Giacchino (Inside Out)

And the Final Cut:

• James Horner (The 33)

Outside of Morricone’s score for The Hateful Eight, there is a lot of interchangeability throughout the rest of the possible nominees.

Best Visual Effects

My Nominations:

• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Walk
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens
• The Revenant
• Jurassic World

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• Mad Max: Fury Road
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But..B.:

• The Walk
• The Martian

And the Final Cut:

• Ant-Man

Best Animated Feature Film

My Nominations:

• Inside Out

(Is there a rule I have to nominate five? For the record, I did not see Anomalisa yet and I don’t think Un Gallo Con Muchos Huevos is eligible but if it is, nominate away!)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

• Inside Out
• Anomalisa

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But..B.:

• Shaun the Sheep
• The Good Dinosaur

And the Final Cut:

• The Peanuts Movie

Maybe the Minions can be presenters?