To See or Not To See – March 25th: Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, I Saw the Light & Born to Be Blue

Can Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice fight off early bad reviews to past $153 million and become the biggest March opening of all time? Is it too late for My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 to capture the box office magic of the original? Plus, two musician biopic platform releases to discuss and our fearless box office forecast in the March 25th edition of To See or Not To See:

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Theater Count: 4,200+
Starring: Henry Cavill, Ben Affleck, Gal Gadot, Jesse Eisenberg, Amy Adams, Jeremy Irons, Laurence Fishburne, Diane Lane, Holly Hunter

Buzz:

Unless you’ve been under a rock, you’re aware of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. It’s heavily marketed and for the last 24 hours, it’s been unavoidable on social media as reviews pour in and the mostly negative reviews have fans beside themselves with anger toward critics. It’s gone so far as to have a few conspiracy theorists throw out the idea that Marvel and Disney have paid critics to give bad reviews of the film. Considering the fate of the DC Expanded Universe is on the line, it’s not really a crazy thought… okay, it’s pretty out there but Warner Brothers is banking on a big weekend for BvS. Four other comic book franchises — not to mention the continuation of Batman and Superman — are on the line here. Oh, and there’s that $400 million+ budget, too.

3 Things to Know:

• Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is the precursor to Justice League, Wonder Woman, Aquaman and The Flash
• Batman will appear in three different costumes in the film
• Online ticket site Fandango has reported BvS has the highest ticket presales of any superhero film in the site’s history (better than Avengers: Age of Ultron and The Dark Knight Rises)

See the Trailer:

Required Viewing:

Optional Past Viewing:

MHT Hot Take:

See it! How can you not? At this point, a the very least, you want to know whether to grab a torch or pitchfork and join the angry fanboy mob on their way to your neighborhood critic’s house or point and laugh as they get worked up because somebody didn’t like a comic book movie.

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My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
Theater Count: 3,130
Starring: Nia Vardalos, John Corbett

Buzz:

David Goldenberg of FiveThirtyEight.com called the original My Big Fat Greek Wedding the “leggiest movie of the past 20 years.” It was the blockbuster no one expected and now it’s the sequel no one saw coming, either. Despite the original film’s success, it never topped $12 million at the box office during it’s unprecedented 52 week run at the box office. (The average film lasts 12 weeks.) What does that mean for My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2? Who knows! Zoolander 2 waited nearly 15 years to flop at the box office while Jurassic World waited 13 and Star Wars: The Force Awakens waited 10 to flourish. Can Nia Vardalos shock the world of cinema again?

3 Things to Know:

• While the sequel will open to over 3,000 theaters, the original’s widest release was in 2,016 theaters… in it’s 26th week of release
• The original already spawned a short-lived TV series on CBS which lasted 7 episodes
• Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson are producers on both the original and the sequel

See the Trailer:

Required Viewing:

Optional Past Viewing:

MHT Hot Take:

Did you see the first one? There’s probably no talking you out of seeing the sequel then, is there?

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I Saw the Light
Theater Count: 5
Starring: Tom Hiddleston, Elizabeth Olsen, Cherry Jones, Bradley Whitford

Buzz:

I Saw the Light opens in New York, Los Angeles and Nashville with an expected wider release next week. The movie possesses a rather impressive official website and is being strategically marketed to it’s target audience. There’s been proven success in this genre as Walk the Line (Johnny Cash & June Carter), Coal Miner’s Daughter (Loretta Lynn) and Sweet Dreams (Patsy Cline) all did well so a biopic about Hank Williams might become at least a minor success.

3 Things to Know:

• The Hank Williams biopic focuses on Williams’ demons — his battles with alcohol, drugs and cheating
• Hiddleston who portrays Williams in the movie, sings the songs himself
• Williams posthumously won a Grammy with son Hank Williams, Jr. for Best Country Vocal Collaboration in 1989

See the Trailer:

Required Viewing:

None

Optional Past Viewing:

MHT Hot Take:

While we’re leaning toward see it, next week’s theater expansion will reveal a lot regarding whether or not this is something that can be skipped until it reaches the home viewing market.

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Born to Be Blue
Theater Count: 3
Starring: Ethan Hawke

Buzz:

Born to Be Blue, like I Saw the Light, is a musician biopic. Unlike I Saw the Light, the film — about jazz trumpeter Chet Baker — is a “reimagining” of Baker’s life rather than a straightforward biopic. IFC, the film’s distributor, rarely expands wide and is more focused on specialty platform releases than triple-digit limited releases. Of their 31 releases in 2015, only 6 reached triple digits in theater count.

3 Things to Know:

• Early in his career (covered in the film), Baker battled heroin addiction and troubles with the law both internationally and in the U.S.
• Due to his chiseled features, Baker was sought after as an actor and appeared in 1955’s Hell’s Horizon
• Baker recorded music up until a year before his death in 1988 at the age of 58

See the Trailer:

Required Viewing:

None

Optional Past Viewing:

MHT Hot Take:

Of the two biopic this week, this one looks the most intriguing but also the one more likely to disappoint. It’ll be available on demand or on DVD soon enough so it might be worth the wait.

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Box Office Recap (March 18th)

1. Zootopia ($37,164,158) MHT Forecast #2 at $35.2 million
2. The Divergent Series: Allegiant ($29,027,348) MHT Forecast #1 at $36 million
3. Miracles from Heaven ($14,812,393) MHT Forecast #3 at $15 million
4. 10 Cloverfield Lane ($12,506,539) MHT Forecast #4 at $12.1 million
5. Deadpool ($8,011,984) MHT Forecast #5 at $7.9 million
6. London Has Fallen ($6,848,377) MHT Forecast #6 at $6 million
7. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot ($2,801,718) MHT Forecast #7 at $2.8 million
8. The Perfect Match ($1,974,056) MHT Forecast #8 at $2.1 million
9. The Brothers Grimsby ($1,420,281) MHT Forecast #10 at $1.4 million
10. The Revenant ($1,207,791) Not in MHT Forecast Top 10

Having The Divergent Series: Allegiant edge out Zootopia was a mistake as Zootopia was slightly better than expected and Allegiant was an even bigger flop than predicted. Most had Miracles from Heaven in the $12-13 million range so the MHT $15 million call was a win. The rest of the way, MHT was fairly close with the exception of London Has Fallen which held much better than expected and The Young Messiah which dropped over 67% from it’s first week.

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Box Office Predictions for March 25th Weekend:

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($156,000,000)
2. Zootopia ($24,900,000)
3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 ($16,700,000)
4. The Divergent Series: Allegiant ($10,800,000)
5. Miracles from Heaven ($9,400,000)
6. 10 Cloverfield Lane ($6,600,000)
7. Deadpool ($5,000,000)
8. London Has Fallen ($4,300,000)
9. Hello, My Name Is Doris ($1,610,000)
10. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot ($1,600,000)

Others: The Perfect Match ($1m), The Revenant ($725k), Risen ($710k), The Brothers Grimsby ($700k)

Batman v Superman will rule the box office world this week but it will only inch past The Hunger Games for a record-setting March, not shatter the $152.5 million record. It’s doubtful My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will threaten for 2nd place and even calling for a $16.7 million opening feels high but after the success of the first film, all bets are off. Could The Divergent Series: Allegiant drop steep enough to actually finish 5th? Sure, if Miracles from Heaven holds better but MHT gives the very small edge to Allegiant. Keep an eye on Hello, My Name Is Doris as it expands to 488 theaters and even with a hefty per theater drop, it could break $2 million in it’s 3rd week. While we’re not going to go overboard, MHT thinks it will be strong enough to bump Whiskey Tango Foxtrot to 10th.

Want to play along yourself? Check out Fantasy Movie League! (MHT is not affiliated with FML in any way… just a fan!)