The question at the box office this week is will third installment in the Divergent series underperform enough to allow Zootopia to take the top spot for a third consecutive week? There’s other questions, too. Do you believe in Miracles or does 10 Cloverfield Lane have enough staying power to finish third? It’s really a matter of faith. And how badly will The Bronze bomb? Let’s take a look at this week’s new releases and give our fearless box office projections:

divergent-alegiant

The Divergent Series: Allegiant
Theater Count: 3,740
Starring: Shailene Woodley, Jeff Daniels, Naomi Watts, Theo James, Ansel Elgort, Miles Teller, Maggie Q, Mekhi Phifer

Buzz:

With every minute that passes, the box office projection for Allegiant seemingly drops. The first two films in the franchise were solid box office performers in their opening week but Allegiant is not expected to achieve the same success. Apparently, even fans of the series aren’t exactly thrilled with the third book. Early reviews aren’t positive and what was considered to be the #1 movie this week at the box office 6 months ago is now vulnerable to Disney’s Zootopia which should continue to hold fairly well.

3 Things to Know:

  • It’s only the first half of the third book in the series (even though they didn’t go the way of The Hunger Games and instead gave the fourth part a new name: Ascendant)
  • The film diverges from the book and may even have a different ending
  • Screen Junkies has given the Honest Trailer treatment to both Divergent and Insurgent (spoiler alert: You’ll laugh!)

See the Trailer:

Required Viewing:

Optional Past Viewing:

MHT Hot Take:

Skip it! Well, unless you’ve seen the other two than you’re sort of hooked, aren’t you? Then again, never seeing the last film in The Matrix series wouldn’t have been a bad thing.

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Miracles from Heaven
Theater Count: 3,047
Starring: Jennifer Garner, Martin Henderson, Queen Latifah

Buzz:

After a few missteps (Risen, The Young Messiah), the faith-based film is being rethought as far as box office results are concerned. This week, Miracles from Heaven makes it even more difficult to judge because of it’s odd Wednesday opening. Once thought to deliver $19 million this weekend, the box office projections have dropped to as low as $13 million but on over 3,000 screens that would be a disappointment. The movie has some star power with Garner, a decent reception amongst critics (63% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes after 40 reviews) and an A+ Cinemascore following Wednesday’s opening.

3 Things to Know:

  • Miracles from Heaven is based on the miraculous true story of Annabel Beam which is also a best-selling novel
  • Patricia Riggen also directed last year’s The 33, the film based on the true story of the rescue of 33 Chilean miners
  • Annabel suffered from pseudo-obstruction mobility disorder and antral hypo mobility disorder, neither of which are considered to be curable

See the Trailer:

Required Viewing:

None

Optional Past Viewing:

MHT Hot Take:

See it! If you’re one to be turned off by anyone entertaining the thought of a higher power at work, ignore that recommendation.

 

bronze

The Bronze
Theater Count: 1,167
Starring: Melissa Rauch, Gary Cole

Buzz:

If this film were being released on April 1st, it would make more sense as then the employees of your local theater could jump out and yell, “April fools!” when you showed up to see it. Okay, so this is a real thing? The Bronze has been completely off the radar until very recently and is not getting any love from critics. Even the “Want to See” audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is shockingly low at 63%.

3 Things to Know:

See the Trailer:

Required Viewing:

None

Optional Past Viewing:

MHT Hot Take:

Skip it! (Okay, admission time: MHT is dying to see this movie… but it’s like when you’re driving down the highway and you see a terrible wreck and you have to take an extra look at it because it’s so hard to believe metal can crumble and twist that way.) But, yeah, skip it! (See it, really!)

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Midnight Special
Theater Count: 5
Starring: Michael Shannon, Adam Driver, Joel Edgerton, Kirsten Dunst, Jaeden Lieberher

Buzz:

Despite a well-received trailer, good to great reviews and an interested audience, Warner Brothers has decided to start small with Midnight Special. It is unknown how wide the film will eventually go but it definitely has more appeal and potential than it will achieve on 5 screens.

3 Things to Know:

  • The film is based on the music video for French electronic music band M83’s “Midnight City”
  • Midnight Special was filmed in 40 days in New Orleans
  • It was one of 17 films chosen to compete for the Golden Bear at the 66th Berlin International Film Festival

See the Trailer:

Required Viewing:

None

Optional Past Viewing:

MHT Hot Take:

See it! Michael Shannon is brilliant, Jaeden Lieberher was phenomenal in St. Vincent, Adam Driver is making all the right moves after Star Wars: The Force Awakens and the trailer does nothing but add anticipation.

The-Preppie-Connection-Movie-Poster

The Preppie Connection
Theater Count: 2
Starring: Thomas Mann, Lucy Fry

Buzz:

Not much buzz to speak of and very little chance to see The Preppie Connection go wide. This platform release from IFC Films is launching on demand the same date and will be a blip on the box office radar.

3 Things to Know:

  • It is based on a true story of a prep school student who smuggled $300k of uncut cocaine into the U.S. in 1984
  • The movie was filmed in New York City and Puerto Rico
  • Director Joseph Castelo’s last feature film was The War Within which released in 2005 and grossed $73,789 at the box office

See the Trailer:

Required Viewing:

None

Optional Past Viewing:

MHT Hot Take:

This is a tough one. The trailer is good enough to give it a longer look and the cast is solid although most of the young cast has been around long enough to have a break out moment if they were going to have it. Plus, the director hasn’t made a film in a decade. After thinking it through: Skip it!

Box Office Recap (March 11th)

  1. Zootopia ($51,339,887) MHT Forecast #1 at $46 million
  2. 10 Cloverfield Lane ($24,702,752) MHT Forecast #2 at $24 million
  3. Deadpool ($10,942,304) MHT Forecast #3 at $11 million
  4. London Has Fallen ($10,836,078) MHT Forecast #4 at $9.25 million
  5. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot ($4,665,013) Not in MHT Forecast Top 7
  6. The Perfect Match ($4,294,232) MHT Forecast #7 at $5.3 million
  7. The Young Messiah ($3,294,876) MHT Forecast #6 at $7.1 million
  8. The Brothers Grimsby ($3,258,327) MHT Forecast #5 at $8 million

MHT nailed the top 4 but missed badly on The Brothers Grimsby and The Young Messiah which is why Whiskey Tango Foxtrot wasn’t even on the radar. The forecasts for 10 Cloverfield Lane and Deadpool were pretty much on point and Zootopia was a little conservative but not too far off.

Box Office Predictions for March 18th Weekend:

  1. The Divergent Series: Allegiant ($36,000,000)
  2. Zootopia ($35,200,000)
  3. Miracles from Heaven ($15,000,000)
  4. 10 Cloverfield Lane ($12,100,000)
  5. Deadpool ($7,900,000)
  6. London Has Fallen ($6,000,000)
  7. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot ($2,800,000)
  8. The Perfect Match ($2,100,000)
  9. The Young Messiah ($1,900,000)
  10. The Brothers Grimsby ($1,400,000)

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Zootopia hold on to the top spot but even with it holding close to 70% of it’s box office and the third film in the Divergent series dropping 28% from the opening of the second film, Zootopia would still not take down the title of #1 at the box office. We’re higher than most others on Miracles from Heaven due to the heavy screen count and expect a better hold on The Young Messiah and worse drop off for The Brothers Grimsby.

Want to play along yourself? Check out Fantasy Movie League! (MHT is not affiliated with FML in any way… just a fan!)