A polarizing sequel and a parody no one asked for go wide. Four platform releases including Richard Linklater doing to ’80s college what he did to ’70s high school in Dazed and Confused, Don Cheadle as Miles Davis, your bi-annual chess fix and an off-the-wall satirical look at the ’40s detective flick. All that and MHT’s box office projections (We know Batman v Superman will be #1 again but how far will it drop?) for the weekend of April 1st… no foolin’!
God’s Not Dead 2
Theater Count: 2,300+
Starring: Melissa Joan Hart, Jesse Metcalfe, Ray Wise, Robin Givens, Ernie Hudson
Buzz:
It’s hot on Facebook (with over 8 million likes) and Twitter and is the follow up to the unexpected success of God’s Not Dead in 2014. The low budget faith-based flick grossed nearly $63 million at the box office despite poor critical response (and you thought Batman v Superman had it bad!). The faith-based market has been a tad oversaturated recently but it’s fair to say God’s Not Dead 2 has a different tone than Miracles from Heaven and while “inspired” by actual court cases, is not historical in nature like Risen or The Young Messiah. This is a real wild card this week.
3 Things to Know:
- TV stars Dean Cain and Kevin Sorbo starred in the original and TV stars Melissa Joan Hart and Jesse Metcalfe star in the sequel. That’s right! Superman, Hercules, Sabrina the Teenage Witch and the hot gardener who took his shirt off in Desperate Housewives!
- This is Fred Thompson’s last appearance in a film — the actor died last November
- Christian pop band Newsboys return with their song “God’s Not Dead”
See the Trailer:
Required Viewing:
Optional Past Viewing:
MHT Hot Take:
Pass! If you want to see a faith-based film this weekend, see Miracles from Heaven. Otherwise, skip this unnecessary sequel that’s more of the same of the original.
Meet the Blacks
Theater Count: 1,011
Starring: Mike Epps, Mike Tyson, Charlie Murphy, George Lopez
Buzz:
Was someone asking for a parody of The Purge? Wait! No one was asking for a parody of 50 Shades of Grey but that didn’t stop anyone in January so why should we be surprised by the release of Meet the Blacks? Distributor Freestyle Releasing has a checkered past and their last three releases to hit more than 400 screens were The Masked Saint ($182k), The Letters ($1.6 million) and Hell and Back ($158k). Stranger things have happened but this has bust written all over it. Although Mike Tyson is box office gold.
3 Things to Know:
- Mike Tyson typically plays himself but in Meet the Blacks, he plays James Clown
- The Purge will also have a sequel later this year
- Mike Epps was also in 50 Shades of Black
See the Trailer:
Required Viewing:
None
Optional Past Viewing:
MHT Hot Take:
Run as far away from this movie as you possibly can. Do not see it. Not even on a dare.
Everybody Wants Some!!
Theater Count: 19
Starring: Blake Jenner, Tyler Hoechlin, Ryan Guzman, Zoey Deutch
Buzz:
Writer/director Richard Linklater rarely misses with critics and, so far, it’s more of the same with Everybody Wants Some!! The “spiritual sequel” to Dazed and Confused is starting out small and Linklater films aren’t known for big box office hauls. Dazed and Confused didn’t find it’s audience until it exited theaters but, again, that’s nothing new for Linklater’s work. It’ll be interesting to see how far it expands in the coming weeks.
3 Things to Know:
- Like Dazed and Confused and Boyhood, Everybody Wants Some!! takes place in Texas
- Known for making films with low budgets, the $10 million for Everybody Wants Some!! is actually a little high — the Dazed and Confused budget was $6.9 million and the budget for Boyhood was $4 million
- The film’s first draft was written in 2005 and it took from 2009 to 2014 for Linklater to find the financial backing to get the film made
See the Trailer:
Required Viewing:
None
Optional Past Viewing:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! It’s really rare Linklater makes something less than good and usually it’s pretty great.
Miles Ahead
Theater Count: 4
Starring: Don Cheadle, Ewan McGregor
Buzz:
The reviews for Miles Ahead are mostly good but even the good reviews have a hint of negativity. Cheadle is given the most praise for his performance as Miles Davis but there’s some criticism of the storytelling which is on director and co-writer Cheadle as well. What Sony Pictures Classics will do with the movie in the coming weeks is anyone’s guess as they expanded I Saw the Light quickly and inexplicably went wide with The Bronze earlier in the month. The studio may have wanted to avoid competition with the two other musician biopics as they cast a wider net in their second week with I Saw the Light reaching 700+ screens and Born to Be Blue on a modest 20 screens.
3 Things to Know:
- The project took 10 years to be made and it took casting a white co-lead (Ewan McGregor) to get the film green-lit
- Cheadle really plays trumpet in the film
- The film is Cheadle’s directorial debut
See the Trailer:
Required Viewing:
None
Other Previous Viewing:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! Don Cheadle is about as talented as they come and is one of the most underappreciated actors of our time.
The Dark Horse
Theater Count: 4
Starring: Cliff Curtis, James Rolleston
Buzz:
The Dark Horse has been on the festival circuit for some time but it’s release has been somewhat under-the-radar. On the festival circuit, it has received numerous accolades. This looks to be yet another film to root for a wider release but distributor Broad Green Pictures has consistently stayed small with the exception of last year’s A Walk in the Woods. Maybe the movie will get the Learning to Drive treatment and make it to 300+ screens.
3 Things to Know:
- The film is based upon a true story
- On the festival circuit, the film was recognized as Best Film at the 1014 New Zealand Film and TV Awards and 2015 Seattle International Film Festival
- The film currently has a 97% Tomatometer after 34 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes
See the Trailer:
Required Viewing:
None
Optional Past Viewing:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! This looks like a gutwrenching film and the positive feedback coming from those who’ve seen it puts it in the “see it” side of the fence.
Kill Me, Deadly
Theater Count: 2
Starring: Dean Lemont, Kirsten Vangsness, Joe Mantegna, Shemar Moore
Buzz:
Distributor Indican hasn’t had a release go beyond 2 screens so far and it’s doubtful their third release will change for this film.
See the Trailer:
Required Viewing:
None
Optional Past Viewing:
MHT Hot Take:
Skip it! This one can wait until some late night when you accidentally come across it on a subscription streaming service.
Box Office Recap (March 25)
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166,007,347) MHT Forecast #1 at $156 million
- Zootopia ($24,022,288) MHT Forecast #2 at $24.9 million
- My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 ($17,861,950) MHT Forecast #3 at $16.7 million
- Miracles from Heaven ($9,694,581) MHT Forecast #5 at $9.4 million
- The Divergent Series: Allegiant ($9,435,173) MHT Forecast #5 at $10.8 million
- 10 Cloverfield Lane ($5,940,154) MHT Forecast #6 at $6.6 million
- Deadpool ($4,897,941) MHT Forecast #7 at $5 million
- London Has Fallen ($3,027,568) MHT Forecast #8 at $4.3 million
- Hello, My Name is Doris ($1,668,806) MHT Forecast #9 at $1.61 million
- Risen ($935,025) MHT Forecast #13 at $0.71 million
MHT had BvS becoming the biggest Easter weekend release and the biggest March release but falling short of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 which put it with the 7th biggest opening of all-time. MHT was also within 10% of 7 of the top 10 releases (although London Has Fallen was a big miss and The Divergent Series: Allegiant continues to be a thorn in our side) so we’ll chalk up last week as a fairly successful forecast.
Box Office Predictions for April 1st Weekend:
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($59,000,000)
- Zootopia ($17,000,000)
- God’s Not Dead 2 ($14,300,000)
- My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 ($10,800,000)
- Miracles from Heaven ($6,500,000)
- The Divergent Series: Allegiant ($4,500,000)
- Eye in the Sky ($3,600,000)
- 10 Cloverfield Lane ($3,300,000)
- Deadpool ($3,200,000)
- Meet the Blacks ($3,000,000)
Others: I Saw the Light ($2.7 million), Hello, My Name is Doris ($2.5 million), London Has Fallen ($1.43 million)
This week is a particularly tough week to forecast as neither of the new releases are overly inspiring. Of all of the films hovering around $3 million, MHT is expecting Eye in the Sky to emerge and have box office success as it tops 1,000 screens. With a massive drop for BvS, the rest of the films will rebound slightly better than previous weeks. Also, as the gap narrows, MHT expects 10 Cloverfield Lane to hold on to it’s lead over Deadpool for one more weekend.
Want to play along yourself? Check out Fantasy Movie League! (MHT is not affiliated with FML in any way… just a fan!)