Hollywood has banded together to take out Captain America: Civil War from the top spot at the box office. Does a movie based on a mobile phone app or a sequel to a surprise hit comedy have what it takes to do it? MHT thinks both The Angry Birds Movie and Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising will do it but who will finish on top? Plus, The Nice Guys also gets a wide release and 4 other platform releases begin their theatrical journey. Here’s what you should and shouldn’t see on the weekend of May 20th:
The Angry Birds Movie
Theater Count: 3,932
Starring: The voices of Jason Sudeikis, Josh Gad, Danny McBride, Bill Hader, Peter Dinklage
Buzz:
You wouldn’t be the first to ask if we really needed a backstory to the most downloaded mobile game of all-time. However, early indications are someone wants to see it as pre-sales are trending in the range of pre-sales for Hotel Transylvania 2 (which did $48.5 million in it’s opening weekend) and critics only kind of hate it.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it… if you have kids! Otherwise, avoid the anger of wasting the money on this unnecessary adaption.
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
Theater Count: 3,384
Starring: Seth Rogen, Rose Byrne, Zac Efron, Chloe Grace Moretz, Selena Gomez
Buzz:
The unexpected comedy hit of the summer of 2014 was Neighbors. It had the third highest opening for a non-sequel R-rated comedy of all-time behind Sex and the City and Ted. While Neighbors opened at $49 million, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising might fall short but it still has the potential to overtake Captain America: Civil War and could even take the #1 spot overall. The trailer is funny and critics are somewhat positive on it so far (scoring a 67% on the Tomatometer through Thursday night).
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! The original had tons of laughs and both trailers have their moments.
The Nice Guys
Theater Count: 2,865
Starring: Russell Crowe, Ryan Gosling, Angourie Rice
Buzz:
Shane Black’s last big screen screenwriting/directorial effort grossed over $400 million at the box office. That had very little do with Black and mostly everything to do with it being Iron Man 3. Before that, Black did Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang which grossed just over $4 million in 2005. Critics have been fawning over The Nice Guys and it’s pulpy ’70s vibe. It’s a welcome alternative to the superhero flicks, sequels and kids stuff the summer is littered with.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! Crowe and Gosling have great chemistry and if it’s anything close to Black’s Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang, you won’t be sorry.
Welcome to Happiness
Theater Count: 10
Starring: Kyle Gallner, Nick Offerman, Olivia Thirlby, Keegan-Michael Key
Buzz:
An indie film from newcomer Oliver Thompson features a moderately interesting cast and some less than glowing early critiques. Actually, the critiques are abysmal and it’s unlikely Welcome to Happiness sees the light of day.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
Skip it! Maybe wait until it’s on Netflix and watch it at 2am when you can’t sleep.
Maggie’s Plan
Theater Count: 5
Starring: Greta Gerwig, Bill Hader, Ethan Hawke, Julianne Moore, Maya Rudolph, Wallace Shawn
Buzz:
Critics love everything Greta Gerwig does. Writer/director Rebecca Miller has also received kind treatment by the critics despite none of her films doing well at the box office. The platform release could see a limited release but will not see anything too big.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! Though “take it or leave it” might be a better response.
Weiner
Theater Count: 5
Buzz:
It’s a documentary which means it’ll see a very small release to satisfy it’s niche audience. Anthony Weiner’s transgressions made national headlines and now there’s a documentary examining the events. Despite it’s titillating topic, Weiner is what it is.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
Skip it! How much more could this documentary expose?
The Other Side
Theater Count: 1
Buzz:
Two documentaries in one week? A less familiar topic is offered up in The Other Side as it explores our divided nation.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
Skip it! The Other Side can wait for home viewing.
Box Office Recap (May 13th Weekend)
- Captain America: Civil War ($72,637,142) MHT #1 Forecast at $79 million
- The Jungle Book ($17,115,708) MHT #2 Forecast at $14.7 million
- Money Monster ($14,788,157) MHT #3 Forecast at $10 million
- The Darkness ($4,950,859) MHT #5 Forecast at $4.95 million
- Mother’s Day ($3,287,342) MHT #4 Forecast at $5 million
- Zootopia ($2,825,734) MHT #6 Forecast at $2.4 million
- The Huntsman: Winter’s War ($2,629,825) MHT #7 Forecast at $2.2 million
- Keanu ($1,924,383) MHT #9 Forecast at $1.3 million
- Barbershop ($1,197,715) MHT #8 Forecast at $1.5 million
- The Boss ($1,197,715) MHT #10 Forecast at $1 million
There was no competition as Captain America: Civil War expectedly led the box office and Money Monster had the biggest début. I undervalued Money Monster and overvalued Captain America: Civil War but only missed The Darkness by $859. So that’s something.
Box Office Predictions for May 20th Weekend
- The Angry Birds Movie ($40,000,000)
- Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising ($38,000,000)
- Captain America: Civil War ($36,900,000)
- The Nice Guys ($15,000,000)
- The Jungle Book ($11,300,000)
- Money Monster ($6,700,000)
- The Darkness ($2,100,000)
- Zootopia ($1,600,000)
- Mother’s Day ($1,300,000)
- The Huntsman: Winter’s War ($1,000,000)
Barbershop: The Next Cut ($700k), Keanu ($480k), The Boss ($475k), Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($180k), Ratchet & Clank ($135k)
3 of the top 4 movies this week will be débuts but it’s not a slam dunk The Angry Birds Movie takes down the top spot. It’ll be interesting to watch the results come in over the weekend. (Projections are only done on movies listed as an option in the weekly Fantasy Movie League game.)
Want to play along yourself? Check out Fantasy Movie League! (MHT is not affiliated with FML in any way… just a fan!)