This week features two very summer movies paired with two very un-summer flicks as sequelitis continues to plague the summer box office. The four wide releases might not even add up to Finding Dory‘s second week haul and the two platform releases — including one about a flatulent corpse — won’t help. Here’s MHT’s recommendations of what to see and not see for the weekend of June 24th:
Independence Day: Resurgence
Theater Counts: 4,068
Starring: Jeff Goldblum, Bill Pullman, Liam Hemsworth, Judd Hirsch, Vivica A. Fox, Brent Spiner
Buzz:
From the looks of the trailers, it looks like Independence Day: Resurgence has gone green and recycled the original. It’s been more than 20 years and the cheesy disaster porn has often been mimicked but never quite duplicated so now it gets a sequel. Yay us!
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
Skip it! The original is overrated and if you remember it being great, this might shock you back into a more realistic version of the past.
The Shallows
Theater Count: 2,962
Starring: Blake Lively
Buzz:
While Blake Lively isn’t a huge box office draw, she’s not the chum in the water to bring the viewers. That would be the great white shark trying to eat Ryan Reynolds’ wife. The lithe Ms. Lively has come a long way since The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants and now must face-off with a predatory shark in the middle of paradise. This is basically the opening of Jaws meets Open Water but often these films have a way of catching on with the audience.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! While this will not get mentioned for any awards, The Shallows might be the best example of a summer movie this year. It’s the ultimate popcorn flick and, more importantly, it’s not a damn sequel!
Free State of Jones
Theater Count: 2,815
Starring: Matthew McConaughey, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Keri Russell
Buzz:
Feeling completely out of place is the McConaughey vehicle set during the Civil War. Aren’t 2+ hour summer movies reserved strictly for superhero films these days? Writer/director has been nominated for best screenplay three times (Dave, Pleasantville, Seabiscuit) but also was nominated for a Golden Raspberry once (The Flintstones). It feels like Free State of Jones might be a victim of poor timing even if it’s good and if it’s good, the timing is even more peculiar considering how much of a long shot movies released before September have with the end-of-year awards.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! McConaughey is rarely a let down and we all knew The Flintstones would suck so Gary Ross is pretty solid, too.
The Neon Demon
Theater Count: 783
Starring: Elle Fanning, Jena Malone, Keanu Reeves, Christina Hendricks, Bella Heathcote
Buzz:
An artsy, stylish horror film? There are two descriptions that are consistent in early hype about The Neon Demon. One is “dark” which bodes well for the somewhat satirical look at the world of modeling. Unfortunately, the other is “style over substance” which is befitting of the subject matter but doesn’t bode well for box office.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! If only because Keanu Reeves is in it.
Swiss Army Man
Theater Count: 3
Starring: Paul Dano, Daniel Radcliffe, Mary Elizabeth Winstead
Buzz:
Easily, the most unusual trailer for a summer film. It features a flatulent corpse played by Radcliffe and a whimsical soundtrack. A24 has a particular path it takes with releases so look for Swiss Army Man to follow a similar one.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it in a few weeks when it reaches a wider release.
Wiener-Dog
Theater Count: 2
Starring: Danny DeVito, Julie Delpy, Greta Gerwig, Rory Culkin, Ellen Burstyn
Buzz:
While Wiener-Dog‘s intertwined tales look intriguing enough, it’ll be unlikely if the IFC release sees a much wider release. Typically, IFC goes very small and the focuses on VOD as their revenue stream rather than big box office bucks.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
Skip it in theaters! It’s one to see at home.
Box Office Recap (June 17th Weekend)
- Finding Dory ($135,060,273) MHT #1 Forecast at $127 million
- Central Intelligence ($35,535,250) MHT #2 Forecast at $36 million
- The Conjuring 2 ($14,880,050) MHT #3 Forecast at $21.2 million
- Now You See Me 2 ($9,373,379) MHT #4 Forecast at $12.4 million
- Warcraft ($7,241,430) MHT #6 Forecast at $7.6 million
- X-Men: Apocalypse ($5,309,290) MHT #8 Forecast at $5 million
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows ($5,251,531) MHT #5 Forecast at $8 million
- Alice Through the Looking Glass ($4,290,760) MHT #10 Forecast at $2.6 million
- Me Before You ($3,911,175) MHT #7 Forecast at $6 million
- Captain America: Civil War ($2,331,622) MHT #11 Forecast at $2.3 million
Chalk this week up as effectively wild as there were some spot on calls (Central Intelligence, Warcraft, X-Men: Apocalypse and Captain America: Civil War) with some huge pitches outside of the strike zone (The Conjuring 2, Now You See Me 2, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Me Before You and Alice Through the Looking Glass). Okay, so maybe it wasn’t that effective. We had Finding Dory breaking that animated record, though.
Box Office Predictions for June 24th Weekend
- Finding Dory ($74,800,000)
- Independence Day: Resurgence ($50,500,000)
- Central Intelligence ($15,300,000)
- The Shallows ($12,600,000)
- Free State of Jones ($9,500,000)
- The Conjuring 2 ($6,000,000)
- Now You See Me 2 ($3,800,000)
- Warcraft ($2,900,000)
- X-Men: Apocalypse ($2,700,000)
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows ($2,500,000)
The Neon Demon ($2.4m), Me Before You ($1.8m), Alice Through the Looking Glass ($1.1m), Captain America: Civil War ($1m), The Angry Birds Movie ($300k)
Finding Dory will edge out Independence Day: Resurgence, The Shallows, Free State of Jones and The Neon Demon… if you combine the four new releases.