Roughly half of the weeks this year have seen the box office crown worn by a sequel. With the arrival of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, the heroes in a halfshell are likely to continue the trend and even if a miracle happened and TMNT didn’t remain at the top, X-Men: Apocalypse would be likely to repeat. Also arriving is Me Before You and Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping. Here’s MHT’s recommendations on what to see and not see this weekend:
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
Theater Count: 4,071
Starring: Megan Fox, Stephen Amell, Will Arnett, Tyler Perry, Laura Linney
Buzz:
The reboot of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was enough of a box office success that a sequel was inevitable. However, the reboot’s overall reception was underwhelming which could mean disappointing returns for the follow-up. Even if the returns are disappointing, TMNT: Out of the Shadows is expected to lead the box office this week as X-Men: Apocalypse shouldn’t have the greatest of legs and Alice Through the Looking Glass is already the cautionary tale of an unnecessary, unwanted follow-up.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
Skip it! The original Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (1990) had a few follow-up films that never quite lived up to the first but all three were low budget affairs. These big budget reboots are playing a game with much higher stakes. Unless you were a huge fan of the reboot, there’s nothing to indicate this series is likely to improve so sitting this one out is probably a good call.
Me Before You
Theater Count: 2,704
Starring: Sam Claflin, Emilia Clarke
Buzz:
Based on a 2012 novel by Jo Jo Moyes, Me Before You is likely to be the tearjerker of the summer. The trailers highlight Emilia Clarke’s bright smile and illuminating personality. It’s best described as a Beauty and the Beast knock-off if the Beast were a handsome, miserable quadriplegic. This could pull in a decent haul at the box office considering the dearth of films of it’s kind at this time of year. It’s intended audience has been forced to sit through big budget summer fare for a month now and is clamoring for something more up their alley.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! Both trailers set the film up as a winner as Clarke and Claflin have obvious chemistry. It’s likely the film will be over-the-top manipulative on the emotional side but it’s kind of expected considering the subject matter.
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping
Theater Count: 2,310
Starring: Andy Samberg, Akiva Schaffer, Jorma Taccone, Imogen Poots, Sarah Silverman, Tim Meadows, Maya Rudolph, Adam Levine, Seal
Buzz:
While the trailers for Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping look amusing and the music mockumentary genre actually has had some success over the years (although did anyone other than me see Fear of a Black Hat?), is Andy Samberg a box office draw? His last attempt at headlining was 2007’s Hot Rod which was unspectacular at the box office. Since then, he’s played second banana, done voices and a few cameos but now he returns in a starring role. Expectations for the film are lukewarm.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! The trailers look funny and the subject matter is ripe for parody. Whether or not Samberg is a draw, he is funny and perfect for this particular part.
Box Office Recap (Memorial Day Weekend)
- X-Men: Apocalypse ($79,810,133) MHT #1 Forecast at $82 million
- Alice Through the Looking Glass ($33,507,621) MHT #2 Forecast at $59.5 million
- The Angry Birds Movie ($24,560,955) MHT #3 Forecast at $26.7 million
- Captain America: Civil War ($20,004,508) MHT #4 Forecast at $20.8 million
- Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising ($11,442,975) MHT #5 Forecast at $12.5 million
- The Jungle Book ($9,512,646) MHT #6 Forecast at $7.7 million
- The Nice Guys ($8,253,432) MHT #7 Forecast at $7.5 million
- Money Monster ($5,626,175) MHT #8 Forecast at $4 million
- Love & Friendship ($3,153,391) MHT #9 Forecast at $2.8 million
- Zootopia ($1,121,189) MHT #10 Forecast at $900k
Despite a complete whiff on Alice Through the Looking Glass as there was even less of an audience that may or may not have had anything to do with allegations of domestic abuse toward Johnny Depp, MHT still nailed the top 10 in perfect order. That’s something, right?
Box Office Predictions for June 3rd Weekend
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows ($33,000,000)
- X-Men: Apocalypse ($24,750,000)
- Me Before You ($15,500,000)
- The Angry Birds Movie ($9,900,000)
- Alice Through the Looking Glass ($9,200,000)
- Captain America: Civil War ($7,800,000)
- Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping ($5,000,000)
- The Jungle Book ($4,700,000)
- Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising ($3,700,000)
- The Nice Guys ($3,300,000)
Money Monster ($2.3m), The Lobster ($2.2m), Love & Friendship ($2.2m), Zootopia ($400k), A Bigger Splash ($190k)
It wouldn’t be surprising to see any of the three new releases or The Lobster explode this weekend. If The Lobster explodes, it probably means north of $3 million… and a messy clean up. The most likely breakout is Me Before You due to it’s ability to offer something currently lacking in theaters.
Want to play along yourself? Check out Fantasy Movie League! (MHT is not affiliated with FML in any way… just a fan!)