Last week, Finding Dory kicked some serious butt as it took down Independence Day: Resurgence and friends (Dory beat all four new releases combined). This week, Finding Dory will own Independence Day weekend as four newcomers vie for second place. Will a Tarzan reboot topple a Purge sequel or will a Spielberg adaptation of a Roald Dahl classic be the BFD (big first début, of course!)? Here’s MHT’s recommendations of what to see and not see for the weekend of July 1st:
The Legend of Tarzan
Theater Count: 3,561
Starring: Alexander Skarsgard, Margot Robbie, Samuel L. Jackson, Christoph Waltz, Djimon Hounsou
Buzz:
While the reception for The Legend of Tarzan seems to be closer to slight disappointment than total disgust, most are expecting the $180 million budget to fall well short at the box office. The reviews aren’t good but there’s a few that don’t seem to mind the often told tale of Tarzan. Considering we’ve already visited the jungle earlier this year with The Jungle Book, it almost feels too soon to go back.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
Skip it! It’s hard to justify yet another reboot of the Tarzan tale. How many times can it be re-told? Hollywood, don’t answer that with 5 more reboots, please! What seems to be the most impressive thing about The Legend of Tarzan is Alexander Skarsgard’s abs but couldn’t you get enough of that by binge watching True Blood instead?
The BFG
Theater Count: 3,357
Starring: Mark Rylance, Ruby Barnhill
Buzz:
While The BFG has received better reviews than The Legend of Tarzan, the box office projections think it could suffer a worse fate financially. It’s hard to believe a Disney-backed Stephen Spielberg film with decent reviews will struggle at the box office but a lot of parents will still be taking the little ones to see Finding Dory and some might consider The BFG to be a little too dark for the younger set.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! While the review isn’t up yet, we’ve already seen The BFG and it was whimsical and actually a lot of fun. It wasn’t perfect and it runs a little long but Spielberg is a master craftsman and the tale is worthy of being told on the big screen.
The Purge: Election Year
Theater Count: 2,796
Starring: Elizabeth Mitchell, Frank Grillo
Buzz:
The Purge franchise has already proven to be critic proof as the first two installments bombed with critics but bludgeoned the others when it came to ticket sales. So what happens now with the third installment which is actually getting halfway decent reviews? The Purge: Election Year currently sits at 61% on Rotten Tomatoes which is a high for the franchise. For the most part, sequels have fallen short of their predecessors this summer but maybe The Purge: Election Year can buck that trend, too.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
Skip it! Having never been a fan of the franchise, there’s no reason to start now even if it is an improvement on the first two in the trilogy.
Our Kind of Traitor
Theater Count: 373
Starring: Ewan McGregor, Naomie Harris, Stellan Skarsgard
Buzz:
There hasn’t been much buzz about this limited release featuring McGregor and Harris as a couple on holiday thrust into the world of espionage after a chance encounter with a Russian money launderer. For some reason, this feels like a throwback to the ’90s but in a good way. The film is based on a John le Carre book of the same name and his work has inspired a dozen films (including The Russia House, The Spy Who Came In From the Cold and The Constant Gardner) with none of the films being considered worse than mediocre. While this won’t be a box office smash, it might worth seeking out.
See the Trailer:
MHT Hot Take:
See it! Usually when a film such as this gets a very limited release, it’s a sign of the quality of the film. However, all signs point to Our Kind of Traitor not being that kind of release.
Box Office Recap (June 24th Weekend)
- Finding Dory ($72,959,954) MHT #1 Forecast at $74.8 million
- Independence Day: Resurgence ($41,039,944) MHT #2 Forecast at $50.5 million
- Central Intelligence ($18,241,416) MHT #3 Forecast at $15.3 million
- The Shallows ($16,800,868) MHT #4 Forecast at $12.6 million
- The Conjuring 2 ($7,702,194) MHT #6 Forecast at $6 million
- Free State of Jones ($7,572,206) MHT #5 Forecast at $9.5 million
- Now You See Me 2 ($5,593,399) MHT #7 Forecast at $3.8 million
- X-Men: Apocalypse ($2,489,881) MHT #9 Forecast at $2.7 million
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows ($2,464,351) MHT #10 Forecast at $2.5 million
- Warcraft ($2,247,420) MHT #8 Forecast at $2.9 million
Last week, the forecast was all over the place. Finding Dory was in line and the next three were in the right order but Independence Day: Resurgence flopped and Central Intelligence and The Shallows outperformed. The $12.6 million projection for The Shallows was considered to be on the high side but the movie went even higher than expected. Outside of TMNT, the bottom of the top 10 was a mess. Better luck this week!
Box Office Predictions for July 1st Weekend
- Finding Dory ($50,700,000)
- The Purge: Election Year ($28,700,000)
- The Legend of Tarzan ($23,000,000)
- Independence Day: Resurgence ($22,000,000)
- The BFG ($21,800,000)
- Central Intelligence ($12,700,000)
- The Shallows ($9,900,000)
- Free State of Jones ($5,000,000)
- The Conjuring 2 ($4,700,000)
- Now You See Me 2 ($3,500,000)
X-Men: Apocalypse ($1.02m), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows ($1.01m), Me Before You ($900k), Captain America: Civil War ($800k), Warcraft ($700k)
The four day holiday weekend won’t be enough to give any of the new batch of films enough steam to come close to Finding Dory as it should cruise to a third straight week at the top of the box office. While The Purge: Election Year is expected to beat The Legend of Tarzan and The BFG convincingly, we’ll be rooting to be wrong and see The BFG soar above the reboot and the sequel.