We’re a few hours away from the announcement of this year’s Oscar nominees. Like last year, now would be as good of a time as any to weigh in on who I think will be nominated for this year’s awards. And, for fun, who I’d nominate if my vote was the only one that counted:

Best Picture

My Nominations

  • Jackie
  • Sing Street
  • Hell or High Water
  • Moonlight
  • Fences
  • Arrival
  • La La Land
  • Everybody Wants Some!!
  • The Witch
  • Lion

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • La La Land
  • Moonlight
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Arrival

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water

And the Final Cuts:

  • Hidden Figures
  • Fences
  • Lion

The Academy never seems to nominate 10, so we’ll settle on 9 this year. Of the locks, Arrival is the only one that wouldn’t be a total shock if it were excluded. The box office success of Hidden Figures might carry it to a nomination. On the outside looking in are Jackie, Sully and 20th Century Women which could take up one of those final spots if Fences, Lion, the aforementioned Hidden Figures or one of the other films falls out of favor with the selectors.

Best Director

My Nominations

  • Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
  • Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
  • Denzel Washington (Fences)
  • Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
  • David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
  • Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
  • Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

And the Final Cut:

  • Martin Scorsese (Silence)

The final spot is tough. You have Mel Gibson, Denzel Washington, Clint Eastwood, Garth Davis, Tom Ford and David Mackenzie who all make sense here, too.

Best Actor

My Nominations

  • Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
  • Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
  • Michael Keaton (The Founder)
  • Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
  • Don Cheadle (Miles Ahead)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
  • Ryan Gosling (La La Land)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
  • Denzel Washington (Fences)

And the Final Cut:

  • Joel Edgerton (Loving)

This is a relatively shallow pool this year but that last spot is a tough call. Having not seen Edgerton’s performance in Loving, I have to rely on word of mouth. Viggo Mortensen, Jake Gyllenhaal or even Garfield’s performance in Silence could sneak in here. Personally, I thought Garfield was better in Silence than Hacksaw Ridge which is why I didn’t make his nomination for Hacksaw Ridge a lock.

Best Actress

My Nominations

  • Natalie Portman (Jackie)
  • Amy Adams (Arrival)
  • Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
  • Sally Field (Hello My Name is Doris)
  • Anya Taylor-Joy (The Witch)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • Emma Stone (La La Land)
  • Natalie Portman (Jackie)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
  • Amy Adams (Arrival)

And the Final Cut:

  • Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)

This is a tough category as the female performances were much better than the males. On my own list, Emma Stone didn’t even make the cut. The names that could make it that aren’t listed here include Ruth Negga, Meryl Streep and Annette Benning. I had a difficult time leaving Kate Beckinsale off my list for her role earlier this year in Love & Friendship but we know the Academy has long forgotten those early year performances.

Best Supporting Actor

My Nominations

  • Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
  • Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
  • Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
  • Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash)
  • Tom Bennett (Love & Friendship)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
  • Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
  • Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)

And the Final Cut:

  • Dev Patel (Lion)

Once you get down to the last spot, it becomes impossible to guess who might curry favor with the Academy. Of the possibilities, even though he didn’t make my list, Patel is a “heart” pick over Kevin Costner (in a role I wasn’t wowed by) and Hugh Grant (in a film I absolutely hated).

Best Supporting Actress

My Nominations

  • Viola Davis (Fences)
  • Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
  • Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
  • Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
  • Naomie Harris (Moonlight)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • Viola Davis (Fences)
  • Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
  • Naomie Harris (Moonlight)

And the Final Cut:

  • Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)

Here’s hoping for an Oscar surprise as both Monae and Spencer were excellent in their roles in Hidden Figures. If history is an indication, though, this category could appear a whole lot whiter come Tuesday morning.

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Nominations

  • Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney (Moonlight)
  • Luke Davies (Lion)
  • Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder (Hidden Figures)
  • August Wilson (Fences)
  • Whit Stillman (Love & Friendship)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney (Moonlight)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • August Wilson (Fences)
  • Eric Heisserer (Arrival)

And the Final Cuts:

  • Luke Davies (Lion)
  • Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder (Hidden Figures)

This category isn’t easy to predict. It would be unsurprising to see Jay Cocks and Martin Scorsese sneak in here for Silence.

Best Original Screenplay

My Nominations:

  • Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
  • Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water)
  • Noah Oppenheim (Jackie)
  • Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
  • Richard Tanne (Southside With You)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
  • Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water)

And the Final Cuts:

  • Matt Ross (Captain Fantastic)
  • Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos (The Lobster)

If it weren’t for Moana, I’d think Zootopia would have a shot of sneaking in here.

Best Cinematography

My Nominations:

  • Greig Fraser (Lion)
  • Rodrigo Prieto (Silence)
  • Stéphane Fontaine (Jackie)
  • Bill Pope (The Jungle Book)
  • Bradford Young (Arrival)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • Linus Sandgren (La La Land)
  • James Laxton (Moonlight)
  • Bradford Young (Arrival)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • Greig Fraser (Lion)

And the Final Cut:

  • Rodrigo Prieto (Silence)

A few cinematographers should receive extra support for work on other films including Fraser who also was the cinematographer of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Prieto who was the best thing about Passengers.

Best Original Score

My Nominations:

  • Justin Hurwitz (La La Land)
  • John Williams (The BFG)
  • Dario Marianelli (Kubo and the Two Strings)
  • Nick Cave and Warren Ellis (Hell or High Water)
  • Mark Korven (The Witch)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • Justin Hurwitz (La La Land)
  • John Williams (The BFG)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • Nicholas Britell (Moonlight)
  • Mica Levi (Jackie)

And the Final Cut:

  • Pharell and Benjamin Walfisch (Hidden Figures)

If you were going to bet “The Field” if there were a list of 5 favorites and everyone else, here’s where you’d do it.

Best Original Song

My Nominations:

  • “City of Stars” (La La Land)
  • “How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)
  • “Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street)
  • “Runnin'” (Hidden Figures)
  • “Rules Don’t Apply (The Rules Don’t Apply)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • “City of Stars” (La La Land)
  • “How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But..:

  • “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” (La La Land)
  • “Runnin'” (Hidden Figures)

And the Final Cut:

  • “The Great Beyond” (Sausage Party)

Where’s 36 Mafia when you need them? Actually, that might come in the form of “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party. I probably should put something else in that final spot since there are so many other worthy nominations but every once in a while, you have to bet on a long shot.

Best Visual Effects

My Nominations:

  • The Jungle Book
  • Doctor Strange
  • Captain America: Civil War
  • The BFG
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • The Jungle Book

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • Doctor Strange
  • Arrival
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

And the Final Cut:

  • The BFG

It doesn’t really matter after The Jungle Book which was made to win this category.

Best Animated Feature Film

My Nominations:

  • Moana
  • Zootopia
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Sing
  • My Life as a Zucchini (On the Preview Alone)

Who Will Earn the Nominations (From most to least likely):

Lock It Up:

  • Zootopia
  • Moana
  • Kubo and the Two Strings

It’ll Be A Shock If They Don’t Get Nominated But…:

  • My Life as a Zucchini

And the Final Cut:

  • The Red Turtle

MHT predicts an Illumination shut out.