On Sunday, the Oscar winners will be announced. In January, we took a stab at predicting the Oscar nominees and the results were good including predicting 100% of the Best Picture nominees for the second straight year! Last year, we also predicted the winners and nailed 15 of 24 which isn’t terrible, either. Here are this year’s nominees, who will win and who should win:
Best Picture (Predicted 9/9 Nominees)
- Arrival
- Fences
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
- Hidden Figures
- La La Land
- Lion
- Manchester by the Sea
- Moonlight
Who Will Win?
La La Land
With a record-tying 14 nominations and an impressive pre-Oscar run, (it won all 7 awards it was nominated for including Best Picture – Comedy or Musical at the Golden Globes and won BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Producers Guild, Directors Guild and New York Film Critics Circle Best Picture honors) it’s hard to imagine La La Land not winning Best Picture. It did not sweep the Guild awards as Hidden Figures won the SAG Award and Moonlight and Arrival won the awards from the Writer’s Guild but since it took two of the four and the other three awards voted on by some of the same voters as the Academy keeps La La Land‘s name at the top of the list. If you want an underdog choice, it’s Moonlight. However, it’s subject matter might be too progressive for the Oscars.
Who Should Win?
Hell or High Water
Based on personal preference, here’s how I ranked the nominees:
3. Hell or High Water
4. Moonlight
5. Fences
6. Arrival
7. La La Land
10. Lion
12. Manchester by the Sea
13. Hidden Figures
54. Hacksaw Ridge
Outside of Hacksaw Ridge, any of the other 8 finished respectably on my top films of 2016 list. (My #1 and #2 choice — Jackie and Sing Street — weren’t nominated.) Last year, Spotlight was #8 on my list beating out higher ranked Room (#1), The Revenant (#3), The Martian (#4), The Big Short (#5), Mad Max: Fury Road (#7), Bridge of Spies (#11) and Brooklyn (#14). So, my list is in no way, shape or form predictive of what the Academy will do.
Best Director (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Damien Chazelle, La La Land
- Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
- Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
- Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Who Will Win?
Damien Chazelle
The winner of the Directors Guild has won Best Director 61 of 68 times. Chazelle won Best Director at this year’s Directors Guild gala. We’re just playing the odds here.
Who Should Win?
Barry Jenkins
I’d put Jenkins and Kenneth Lonergan ahead of Chazelle as both created natural, raw, emotional works that affect you long after you leave the theater. That’s not a knock on Chazelle’s efforts as La La Land is also superbly directed, just a preference. On the outside looking in are Villeneuve who should someday win this award but not this year and Gibson whose ultra-violent Hacksaw Ridge is frankly overrated.
Best Actor (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
- Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
- Ryan Gosling, La La Land
- Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
- Denzel Washington, Fences
Who Will Win?
Casey Affleck
His performance along with Denzel’s stand out head and shoulders above the rest. Affleck’s early run of wins in this category has slowed and Denzel Washington’s win at the SAG Awards (which has predicted the Oscar winner for 13 consecutive years) makes it possible that Affleck isn’t the choice here. Anyone outside of these two would be a stunner, even Gosling who is riding the coattails of La La Land‘s record-tying nominations.
Who Should Win?
Affleck
If Denzel were to win, it would be his 3rd win in this category and it wouldn’t be an upset. Affleck’s performance in Manchester by the Sea is so powerful, though, it would be an oversight to look elsewhere in this category. This is coming from someone who pencils in Denzel Washington’s name at the top every time favorite actors are discussed.
Best Actress (Predicted 3/5 Nominees)
- Isabelle Huppert, Elle
- Ruth Negga, Loving
- Natalie Portman, Jackie
- Emma Stone, La La Land
- Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Who Will Win?
Emma Stone
It’s her year. Sorry to those who think otherwise… You know who you are.
Who Should Win?
Natalie Portman
My choice for best film of 2016 was Jackie and it was mostly due to Portman’s amazing turn as Jackie Kennedy. The performance blew me away and I’m at the unfair disadvantage of having not seen Elle or Loving.
Best Supporting Actor (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
- Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
- Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
- Dev Patel, Lion
- Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Who Will Win?
Mahershala Ali
The only criticism of his role in Moonlight I can find is that it’s brief. Ali’s performance is excellent albeit brief and stands out amongst the five nominees. Bridges could win for his body of work and would be a more potent threat had he never won before. Hedges is too young. Patel and Shannon are arguably not the most deserving supporting performances in their respective films (depending on if you count the younger version of Patel’s character as a supporting role in Lion, although someone has to be lead actor, right?).
Who Should Win?
Ali
There’s little reason to look elsewhere.
Best Supporting Actress (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Viola Davis, Fences
- Naomie Harris, Moonlight
- Nicole Kidman, Lion
- Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
- Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Who Will Win?
Viola Davis
She’s simply amazing in Fences. There’s really not another choice here. Just Davis and four wrong answers to the question of who was Best Supporting Actress of the films of 2016?
Who Should Win?
Davis
Nope. Not budging on this one.
Best Adapted Screenplay (Predicted 5/5 Nominees)
- Luke Davies, Lion
- Eric Heisserer, Arrival
- Barry Jenkins/Tarell Alvin McCraney, Moonlight
- Allison Schroeder/Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
- August Wilson, Fences
Who Will Win?
Barry Jenkins & Tarell Alvin McCraney
There’s some debate over whether the Moonlight script is original or adapted which could cause some splitting of the vote here. However, the film based loosely on McCraney’s autobiographical play In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue, should get enough consideration to take home the award.
Who Should Win?
Jenkins & McCraney
Of the five, only Heisserer’s script collecting the award would be a total shock (although it did win the Critics’ Choice Award) and a play-inspired film hasn’t won this award in 28 years (which also puts August Wilson’s Fences on the outside track, too). Davies won the BAFTA for best adaptation so it is a somewhat wide open field. We’ll go with Moonlight‘s powerful script as the deserving winner here, though.
Best Original Screenplay (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Damien Chazelle, La La Land
- Yorgos Lanthimos/Efthymis Filippou, The Lobster
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
- Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
- Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Who Will Win?
Kenneth Lonergan
If Chazelle were to win for La La Land, it would be the first time since Interrupted Melody in 1955 (unless you count 1968’s The Producers)that a musical won in this category. That was 61 years ago. For this category, look for the film that tugs on the heart strings and that would definitely be Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea.
Who Should Win?
Lonergan
Script-wise, Lonergan’s work stands head and shoulders above the other options.
Best Cinematography (Predicted 5/5 Nominees)
- Greig Fraser, Lion
- James Laxton, Moonlight
- Rodrigo Prieto, Silence
- Linus Sandgren, La La Land
- Bradford Young, Arrival
Who Will Win?
Linus Sandgren
Begrudgingly, I’m going with the cinematographer of the most nominated film of the year. A loss here wouldn’t be an upset as Fraser won for Lion at the BAFTA Awards but they really, really loved Lion.
Who Should Win?
Greig Fraser
I’m giving him extra credit for his work on Rogue One: A Star Wars Story but even without his supplemental work, Lion‘s visuals are some of the most stunning of the year. I’d actually rank the cinematography of La La Land 5th of the five nominees and that’s not a knock on the cinematography by any means. The other four are just that good.
Best Original Score (Predicted 3/5 Nominees)
- Nicholas Britell, Moonlight
- Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
- Micachu, Jackie
- Thomas Newman, Passengers
- Dustin O’Halloran/Hauschka, Lion
Who Will Win?
Justin Hurwitz
This category has had me puzzled since the nominations dropped as John Williams is absent and the work of Pharell in Hidden Figures has gone unheralded. Last year, Mad Max: Fury Road swept most of the visual technical noms. It received 10 total nominations and won 6. In addition to the 3 big awards I expect La La Land to collect, I’m also going to say it scores here as well as a few other technical sound awards. Pun completely intended.
Who Should Win?
Micachu
The next best thing to Portman’s performance in Jackie is Micachu’s score. Also known as Mica Levi, Micachu’s score sets the mood and provides for a competent backdrop to Portman’s incredible turn.
Best Original Song (Predicted 3/5 Nominees)
- “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”, La La Land
- “Can’t Stop the Feeling”, Trolls
- “City of Stars”, La La Land
- “The Empty Chair”, Jim: The James Foley Story
- “How Far I’ll Go”, Moana
Who Will Win?
“City of Stars”
Usually, if two nominees come from the same movie, you’d worry about them splitting the vote. In this case, they’ll likely split the vote and one will still win.
Who Should Win?
“How Far I’ll Go”
Everyone loves an underdog… especially one as uplifting as this Disney animated tune.
Best Visual Effects (Predicted 3/5 Nominees)
- Deepwater Horizon
- Doctor Strange
- The Jungle Book
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Who Will Win?
The Jungle Book
I mentioned it in my hot take when the movie was released and nothing has swayed me since.
Who Should Win?
The Jungle Book
Any other movie chosen here would make my head explode.
Best Animated Feature Film (Predicted 5/5 Nominees)
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Moana
- My Life as a Zucchini
- The Red Turtle
- Zootopia
Who Will Win?
Zootopia
Disney or Pixar usually wins when they are nominated. The only reason one of them loses this year is because they can’t both win. Zootopia has more of an Oscar feel to it.
Who Should Win?
Moana
Of the two, it was more enjoyable. None of these options are bad though.
The Other Categories…
Best Documentary
- Fire at Sea
- I Am Not Your Negro
- Life, Animated
- O.J.: Made in America
- 13th
Who Will Win?
O.J. Made in America
In a year with two other very strong candidates — I Am Not Your Negro and 13th — O.J.: Made in America is too much of a force to be reckoned with.
Best Foreign Language Film
- Land of Mine
- A Man Called Ove
- The Salesman
- Tanna
- Toni Erdmann
Who Will Win?
Toni Erdmann
Despite late support for The Salesman due to a non-film related political stance by its director, Toni Erdmann will grab the win.
Best Costume Design
- Allied
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- Florence Foster Jenkins
- Jackie
- La La Land
Who Will Win?
Jackie
La La Land is too contemporary. Jackie is more decadent although then you could make an argument for Florence Foster Jenkins which is only likely to garner ridiculous, childish taunts on Twitter from the shriveled orange currently masquerading as the President when it goes home empty handed.
Best Film Editing
- Arrival
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
- La La Land
- Moonlight
Who Will Win?
Arrival
Predictors lean toward Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge. Musicals also do well for some reason. 10 of the last 13 ACE Eddie winners have gone home with the Oscar which is Arrival. If you want to play devil’s advocate, Hacksaw Ridge won the BAFTA and 7 of the last 9 BAFTA winners went on to Oscar gold.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
- A Man Called Ove
- Star Trek Beyond
- Suicide Squad
Who Will Win?
Star Trek Beyond
I’d never heard of A Man Called Ove before the nomination and I can never imagine Suicide Squad being an Oscar winner. That leaves Star Trek Beyond.
Best Production Design
- Arrival
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- Hail, Caesar!
- La La Land
- Passengers
Who Will Win?
La La Land
Sure, it’s contemporary. There’s enough fantasy in the film (consider the opening scene and the film’s final act and that’s enough) to carry this past a field of relatively weak contenders. I’d give Passengers a better shot if the film wasn’t such a disappointment.
Best Sound Editing
- Arrival
- Deepwater Horizon
- Hacksaw Ridge
- La La Land
- Sully
Who Will Win?
Hacksaw Ridge
This is the one technical sound award I’m not going with La La Land for. This award almost always goes to something loud. Since 2000, it is usually an action or fantasy flick (The Lord of the Rings: Two Towers (2002), King Kong (2005), The Bourne Ultimatum (2007), The Dark Knight (2008), Inception (2010), Hugo (2011), Skyfall (2011), Gravity (2013), Mad Max: Fury Road (2015)) or a war movie (U-571 (2000), Pearl Harbor (2001), Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World (2003), Letters from Iwo Jima (2006), The Hurt Locker (2009), Zero Dark Thirty (2012), American Sniper (2014)) do well, too. Only The Incredibles, an animated Disney Pixar action flick kind of broke the mold. You know what doesn’t do well in this category? Musicals. The closest thing would be 1992’s Aladdin which was nominated and lost to Bram Stoker’s Dracula.
Best Sound Mixing
- Arrival
- Hacksaw Ridge
- La La Land
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
- 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Who Will Win?
La La Land
Musicals fare better here. As do movies with music in the theme. Since 1970, Fiddler on the Roof (1971), Cabaret (1972), Amadeus (1983), Bird (1988), Chicago (2002), Ray (2004), Dreamgirls (2006), Les Miserables (2012) and Whiplash (2014) have all scored wins here. Even pre-1970, musicals have dominated this category. There’s talk of Arrival here but don’t hold your breath.
Best Documentary Short Subject
- 4.1 Miles
- Extremis
- Joe’s Violin
- Watani: My Homeland
- The White Helmets
Who Will Win?
Joe’s Violin
I’m guessing here but I rarely bet against a Holocaust-related doc.
Best Animated Short Film
- Blind Vaysha
- Borrowed Time
- Pear Cider and Cigarettes
- Pearl
- Piper
Who Will Win?
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Until a few days ago, I was leaning toward Piper, the Pixar lead-in to Finding Dory. However, I’ve been inundated with hype around Pear Cider and Cigarettes on Twitter and can’t ignore the push.
Best Live Action Short
- Ennemis Interieurs
- La Femme et le TGV
- Silent Nights
- Sing
- Timecode
Who Will Win?
Sing
Again, with little knowledge of this category, I’m going with the favorite.