We’re roughly 36 hours away from knowing who the Best Picture winner is and if they’ll screw up the announcement this time. For the first time in 3 years of predicting, MHT didn’t nail all of the Best Picture nominations (only 7 of 9). Could that mean the rest of the predictions will be off? Here’s who should and will win this year’s Oscars:
Best Picture (Predicted 7/9 Nominees)
- Call Me By Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Will Win?
Get Out
While The Shape of Water has the most nominations and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has a groundswell of support (mainly because haters have been hating and now people want to overcompensate), somehow this box office stunner will get the support of the newer Academy voters and somehow take down this Award.
Who Should Win?
Ladybird
Best movie of the year not named Star Wars… enough said!
Best Director (Predicted 3/5 Nominees)
- Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
- Greta Gerwig, Ladybird
- Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
- Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Who Will Win?
Guillermo Del Toro
It’s Nolan or Del Toro in one of those situations where their resume adds votes.
Who Should Win?
Jordan Peele
While I don’t think Get Out should win Best Picture, I think Peele’s work should be recognized here.
Best Actor (Predicted 3/5 Nominees)
- Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
- Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
- Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
- Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
- Timothy Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Who Will Win?
Gary Oldman
It’s not even close here especially with the year’s second best performance — James Franco in The Disaster Artist — not even nominated.
Who Should Win?
Oldman
They’ll get it right.
Best Actress (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
- Meryl Streep, The Post
- Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
- Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Who Will Win?
Frances McDormand
Anyone could pull off the upset here and Robbie, Hawkins and Ronan are equally deserving. (Streep’s legacy is always a threat but let’s be serious here, that was just an ok performance.)
Who Should Win?
Saoirse Ronan
I loved Lady Bird and thought Ronan who was incredible in Brooklyn 2 years ago brought even more here. If she doesn’t win, she’ll be back at some point.
Best Supporting Actor (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
- Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
- Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
- Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Will Win?
Sam Rockwell
Unless Harrelson steals away some attention as they both come from the same film, Rockwell should win. His biggest threat is likely Dafoe.
Who Should Win?
Rockwell
My personal nominations would have only included two of these choices with Rockwell being one.
Best Supporting Actress (Predicted 3/5 Nominees)
- Allison Janney, I, Tonya
- Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
- Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
- Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
- Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Who Will Win?
Allison Janney
If anyone was a threat here, it would be Blige who could come out of nowhere and steal this one.
Who Should Win?
Janney
Either Janney or Metcalf are the right choice here.
Best Adapted Screenplay (Predicted 5/5 Nominees)
- Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
- James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
- Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan
- Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
- Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound
Who Will Win?
Call Me By Your Name
It’s the most Oscar-ish film on this particular list.
Who Should Win?
Logan
It was different for a CBM and really not much of a CBM at all, except it is.
Best Original Screenplay (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nankiani, The Big Sick
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
- Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Will Win?
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I think it makes more sense for Get Out to win here and Three Billboards to win Best Picture but that’s not how I see it going down on Oscar night.
Who Should Win?
Lady Bird
Now I’m just fawning.
Best Cinematography (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
- Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
- Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
- Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
- Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
Who Will Win?
Roger Deakins
He’s overdue as he’s 0-13 at this point. They got to get it right this time… right?
Who Should Win?
Deakins
Until he wins, he should win.
Best Costume Design (Predicted 3/5 Nominees)
- Beauty and the Beast
- Darkest Hour
- Phantom Thread
- The Shape of Water
- Victoria and Abdul
Who Will Win?
Phantom Thread
It’s about costume design… tough to not be the winner here.
Who Should Win?
Beauty and the Beast
Frankly, the costumes are better.
Best Film Editing (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Baby Driver
- Dunkirk
- I, Tonya
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Will Win?
Dunkirk
One of those films that will scoop up a few technical awards and here’s one of them.
Who Should Win?
Baby Driver
Slick, fun and stylish. The editing here also appears to be seamless.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Predicted 2/3 Nominees)
- Darkest Hour
- Victoria and Abdul
- Wonder
Who Will Win?
Darkest Hour
How long did it take to make Gary Oldman unrecognizably appear as Churchill?
Who Should Win?
Darkest Hour
It’s ok if Wonder wins here, too.
Best Original Score (Predicted 3/5 Nominees)
- Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
- Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
- John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
- Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
Who Will Win?
Alexandre Desplat
Of the movies not Star Wars, it’s the most memorable of the scores nominated.
Who Should Win?
Carter Burwell
The under appreciated Burwell deserves recognition and even though Desplat’s score is more memorable, it’s not as impactful to the film as Burwell’s work in Three Billboards.
Best Original Song (Predicted 5/5 Nominees)
- “Mighty River”, Mudbound
- “Master of Love”, Call Me By Your Name
- “Remember Me”, Coco
- “Stand Up for Something”, Marshall
- “This is Me”, The Greatest Showman
Who Will Win?
“Remember Me”
The kid-friendly Coco should hold up against some stiff competition.
Who Should Win?
“This is Me”
It’s more personal choice than anything here. Although it’s tough to say Blige should walk away 0-2 on the night.
Best Production Design (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Beauty and the Beast
- Blade Runner 2049
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- The Shape of Water
Who Will Win?
The Shape of Water
Who Should Win?
The Shape of Water
There’s some fantastic work bringing this fantasy to life.
Best Sound Editing (Predicted 5/5 Nominees)
- Baby Driver
- Blade Runner 2049
- Dunkirk
- The Shape of Water
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Who Will Win?
Dunkirk
See the earlier comment regarding this film.
Who Should Win?
Baby Driver
Give all of the sound categories to this worthy subject.
Best Sound Mixing (Predicted 4/5 Nominees)
- Baby Driver
- Blade Runner 2049
- Dunkirk
- The Shape of Water
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Who Will Win?
Dunkirk
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
Who Should Win?
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
I know I just said give all of the sound categories to Baby Driver… I change my mind!
Best Visual Effects (Predicted 3/5 Nominees)
- Blade Runner 2049
- Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
- Kong: Skull Island
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi
- War for the Planet of the Apes
Who Will Win?
War for the Planet of the Apes
It’s an excellent film and the visuals are impressive.
Who Should Win?
Kong: Skull Island
The wrong monkey(s) will win!
Best Animated Feature Film (Predicted 3/5 Nominees)
- The Boss Baby
- The Breadwinner
- Coco
- Ferdinand
- Loving Vincent
Who Will Win?
Coco
Who Should Win?
Coco
If you had to make one bet on one winner, here it is.
Best Foreign Language Film
- A Fantastic Woman
- The Insult
- Loveless
- On Body and Soul
- The Square
Who Will Win?
A Fantastic Woman
Going with the odds on favorite.
Best Documentary Feature
- Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
- Faces Places
- Icarus
- Last Men in Aleppo
- Strong Island
Who Will Win?
Icarus
A daring concept, I give Icarus the edge here.